Summary

  • Front Runner wins this course: in JP room matches with the Finals' conditions, Front Runners took at least 60 of 100 wins on 47% use, and ~57% of ~67 wins in a second room series once its test Umas are removed; in the real CM their share of Graded League rivals rose from 33% (Round 1) to 44% (Round 2) as players learned.
  • Ace: Mihono Bourbon [CODE: ICING] (42% of all 100 room wins). Second Front Runner: Daiwa Scarlet [Nuit Étoilée de Scarlet] (14%). Kitasan Black [Gilded Shrine to Glory] was the most used Uma in Round 1 but won far less than she was used: bring her only fully built.
  • Team shape with the best record: one Runaway (Mejiro Palmer or Silence Suzuka, never two) + Bourbon + a closer (Special Week [Ruler of Japan] as Late Surger with Claw Forward, or Inari One [Golden Dream] as End Closer with Encroaching Shadow). Two Front Runners + one closer also won Graded League Finals.
  • Do not spend a slot on Pace Chasers (~3% of non-test wins) or debuffers (common in JP lobbies, no wins in 100 measured room races).
  • Stats around 1500/900/1100/700/1100 with Long S and one gold recovery (~1050 stamina without one). Every Front Runner inherits Angling and Scheming + Victory Cheer! and carries Groundwork and See Ya Later!.
  • Expect about 4 Front Runners (Runaways included) in a room of 9, usually between 2 and 6, and at most one Runaway in most rooms.

Guides: Runaway tractor + Bourbon + a second ace at the back; alternative: two Front.

Running styles

Styles the guides favor: Front RunnerLate SurgerEnd Closer

Use is the share of rival Umas that ran each style in Japan: how popular it was, not how often it won.

Result: wins or first places in room matches set up in Japan with this CM's conditions. Small samples, not Global and not a win rate in the real event.

StyleVerdictUse in JapanResult in JP roomsNote
Front RunnerBest43.9 %57 %of room winsMeasured Includes Runaways (JP counted them as Front Runners). Room matches with the Finals' conditions (2022-12-13, 100 winners): 47.3% use and at least 60 of 100 wins (Bourbon 42 + Scarlet 14 + Palmer 4; 60-74 by arithmetic). Graded League Round 1: 33.3% use. Raw Front Runner wins in a second room series: 23 and 24 of 50 per sample; 57% is the count after removing that series' test Umas. A JP post-event review: Front Runner and End Closer were the strong styles, Front Runner favoured by participants' win rates. Sample: use: 670 rival Umas, Graded League Round 2 of the real CM; wins: ~67 non-test winners of 100 room races set up like the Graded League
RunawayViable7 %6 %of room winsMeasured Use is an upper bound: Silence Suzuka 17 + Mejiro Palmer 4 of 300 picks, assuming all ran Runaway (only those two could learn it in JP 2022). Wins: Runaway Suzuka won 2 and Runaway Palmer 1 of the 50 races. Its job is to stretch the field so Bourbon leads into the late race (JP guides agree). A JP post-event review says the Runaway fought better than in any earlier CM, but two Runaways in one room almost always sink each other (JP and Global guides agree). One Group A Finals winner's Suzuka took 12.5% of his Round 1 wins [anecdote]. Sample: 50 room races, 300 rival Umas (late room sample)
Pace ChaserAvoid11.5 %3 %of room winsMeasured Use fell from 25.4% (Graded League Round 1) to 11.5% (Round 2); 4.0% in the room matches with the Finals' conditions and none among their top Umas. The other 3 Pace Chaser wins in the second room series were its test Mejiro Ardan, excluded. No reliable late-race acceleration: My True Strength needs the Uma within 4 lengths of the leader, which a Runaway or many Front Runners break (JP and Global guides agree). Sample: use: 670 rival Umas, Graded League Round 2; wins: 2 of ~67 non-test room winners
Late SurgerStrong25.7 %22 %of room winsMeasured Room matches with the Finals' conditions: 27.0% use and at least 20 of 100 wins (Special Week 10, Oguri Cap [Ashen Miracle] 6, Vodka [Fiery Aqua Vitae] 4). Hinges on Claw Forward (9 of 9 Late Surger winners in the early room sample), which needs the Symboli Kris S support card, and on lobby composition. Sample: use: 670 rival Umas, Graded League Round 2; wins: 15 of ~67 non-test room winners
End CloserStrong18.9 %18 %of room winsMeasured Room matches with the Finals' conditions: 21.7% use and at least 6 of 100 wins (Inari One 4, Special Week 1, Narita Taishin 1). Encroaching Shadow has no position condition. A JP post-event review ranks End Closer with Front Runner as the strong styles, but when many Front Runners stretch the field closers can run out of road. Raw End Closer wins in the second room series were inflated by its test Inari One (20 of 32). Sample: use: 670 rival Umas, Graded League Round 2; wins: 12 of ~67 non-test room winners

Pace Chaser: Pace is conditional in CM20: you first need a viable acceleration package; Christmas Oguri is a separate case. umamusumelabo.com

Expected room

Front Runners per room (Runaways included): 4 on average, from 2 to 6. Runaways per room: 0.5 on average, from 0 to 2. Measured

The Front Runner figure INCLUDES Runaways, because JP counted them as Front Runners; if the planner models Runaways separately, pure Front Runners are about 3.5. The measured 6-rival distribution is exactly two identical teams convolved, so your team was added as a third with the same mix (equivalent to use × 9). Other rounds: Graded League Round 1 3.0 (1-6), Open League 1.7-2.3 (0-4); a JP post-event review saw 7-8 Front Runner rooms several times in Round 2 (about 4% of rooms by this model). The Runaway figure is an inference, not a measurement: Suzuka + Palmer were ~5.7% of Graded League Round 2 rivals (OCR order) and 7% of room-match picks, i.e. 0.5-0.6 per room if all ran Runaway; a binomial model gives 2+ Runaways in ~9-13% of rooms.

Umas

What Japan used and what the guides recommend, one card per outfit. A recommendation is a guide author's priority, not a chance of winning.

  • Mihono BourbonCODE: ICINGFront RunnerAceMain pick

    In Japan: 42% of 100 winners and 58% of Front Runner picks (room matches with the Finals' conditions, 2022-12-13); most used Uma in Graded League Round 2 (13.0% of 670 rivals); ace of one player's team (60% of his Round 1 wins, 70-10 overall, Group A Finals won). Global data: Long B, so she needs Long sparks for S. Measured

    Guides:Front Runner: Position and finishing acceleration

    • Allied Runaway or second Front
    • Validate availability and version in Global
    • Guides run her with a Runaway or a second Front Runner on the team.

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Daiwa ScarletNuit Étoilée de ScarletFront RunnerCoreAlternative

    In Japan: 14% of 100 winners and 34% of Front Runner picks (room matches with the Finals' conditions); most Front Runner wins in the early room sample (9 of 50 races); 10.3% of Graded League Round 2 rivals. One player's Scarlet won 49 of 80 round races and the Graded League Finals [anecdote]. Brings her own gold recovery (Restless). Measured

    Guides:Front Runner: Second front-side ace

    • Prepare recovery and mid-race
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    altema.jp

  • Kitasan BlackGilded Shrine to GloryFront RunnerAlternative

    In Japan: Most used Uma in Graded League Round 1 (9.2%) and 9.4% in Round 2, but won far less than used: 3 wins from 29 picks (late room sample) and 5 from 38 (early); not among the top 3 Front Runners of the room matches with the Finals' conditions; one player's incomplete one won 4 of 80 races [anecdote]. No own recovery. Her Victory Cheer! is still the key inheritance for every Front Runner. Measured

  • Mejiro PalmerLine BreakthroughRunawayCoreConditional

    In Japan: The better Runaway at equal build (her own unique is a recovery), though most JP players used Suzuka; gets Runaway by event. As Front Runner/Runaway: 9% of Front Runner picks and 4% of wins (room matches with the Finals' conditions); 1 Runaway win from 4 picks in a room sample. From guides

    Guides:Runaway: Stretches the field

    • Recovery; watch for a rival Runaway
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Silence SuzukaInnocent SilenceRunawayAlternative

    In Japan: The usual JP Runaway: 17 of 300 picks and 2 wins in 50 races (late room sample); ~2-3% of Graded League rivals (OCR order). One player's Runaway Suzuka + Bourbon + Special Week went 70-10 and won the Group A Finals [anecdote]. Long E: needs Long sparks; that player says Long S is optional for a Runaway. Measured

  • Special WeekRuler of JapanLate SurgerCoreAlternative

    In Japan: 10% of 100 winners and 21% of Late Surger picks (room matches with the Finals' conditions); 2nd most used in Graded League Round 2 (10.6%); 4 wins in each room sample; 20% of one Group A Finals winner's Round 1 wins. Her unique Dreams Donned with Pride! suits Nakayama (JP and Global guides agree); best as Late Surger with Claw Forward. Measured

    Guides:Late Surger: Second route from the back

    • Late acceleration available in the version
    • Validate availability and version in Global
    • Late Surger acceleration: the guide deck for this outfit takes Claw Forward from the Symboli Kris S SSR.

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Oguri CapAshen MiracleLate SurgerAlternative

    In Japan: 6% of 100 winners on only 3% of Late Surger picks, the best win/use ratio among Late Surgers (room matches with the Finals' conditions); 4 wins in the early room sample and 1 in the late one; 4.3% of Graded League Round 1 rivals. Best as Late Surger; Triple 7s can trigger her unique. Measured

  • VodkaFiery Aqua VitaeLate SurgerAlternative

    In Japan: 4% of 100 winners and 16% of Late Surger picks (room matches with the Finals' conditions); 1 win from 5 picks in a room sample. Long E in Global data: needs Long sparks. Measured

  • Inari OneGolden DreamEnd CloserCoreAlternative

    In Japan: Top End Closer: 21% of End Closer picks and 4% of wins (room matches with the Finals' conditions); non-test wins in the room samples 5 (early) and 3 (late); about 3.2% and 4.5% of Graded League rivals in Rounds 1 and 2 (listed as Inari One [Golden Dream], the only alternate Inari outfit then; shares by OCR order). Best End Closer for one Group A Finals winner; no mandatory support card. Carries Encroaching Shadow. Measured

    Guides:End Closer: Own acceleration on the straight

    • Don't confuse with the first outfit
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Narita TaishinNeverthelessEnd CloserAlternative

    In Japan: 8% of End Closer picks and 1% of wins (room matches with the Finals' conditions); 1 win in the early room sample. 2nd-best End Closer for one Group A Finals winner; top tier in a Global guide. Carries Encroaching Shadow and the gold recovery Sleeping Lion. Measured

  • Gold ShipRed StrifeEnd CloserAlternative

    In Japan: 4th most used in Graded League Round 1 (5.8%); room samples: 16 picks (late), 1 win (early). Budget End Closer with the gold recovery Go-Home Specialist; JP guides suggest her for players without strong support cards; one player warned she lacks late acceleration beyond Straightaway Spurt. Measured

  • Nice NaturePoinsettia RibbonLate SurgerDebuffer

    In Japan: Listed so the lobby model knows debuffers show up: 5th most used Uma in Graded League Round 2 (4.8%) and 3.4% in Round 1 (base outfit by naming convention), usually as a stamina debuffer, yet no debuffer won any of the 100 races in the room samples. Not recommended for your team. Measured

Stats and aptitudes

Target Speed Stamina Power Guts Wit
Recommended150090011007001100
Minimum14009001000600900

Stamina with a gold recovery skill: 900.Without one: 1050.

Aptitudes: Long S strongly preferred: 41 of 47 Front Runner winners and 30 of 32 End Closer winners had it (room samples). A Runaway can skip it (one Group A Finals winner). In Global data Mihono Bourbon [CODE: ICING] starts at Long B and Silence Suzuka / Vodka [Fiery Aqua Vitae] at Long E, so they need Long sparks.

From guides Targets: one JP guide, realistic 1500/900/1100/600/1100 (ideal 1600/1000/1200/900/1200); another, advanced 1500/950+/1100/700/1100 and beginner 1400/900+/1000/600/900; a Global guide, 1400+/900+/1000+/600/1000+. Guts 700 because winners carried it: room-sample averages 730-894, and 66 of the 100 winners in the room matches with the Finals' conditions had 700+. Racetrack bonus on stamina and guts at 601/901 (867 and 577 are enough with Great mood). Stamina of those 100 winners: 10 at 700-799, 44 at 800-899, 46 at 900+. One gold recovery covers ~900 stamina; none needs ~1050; Claw Forward costs ~2% HP, add ~50.

Check your own build in the HP Calculator before training: these targets come from Japanese guides.

Skills

Inherited uniques 3

  • Angling and SchemingFront RunnerRunawayMandatory inherited acceleration: 44 of 47 Front Runner winners (both room samples). From Seiun Sky [Reeling in the Big One]; it is a corner skill, and corner 3 starts only ~33 m after the late race begins.
  • Victory Cheer!Front RunnerRunawayUnique of Kitasan Black [Gilded Shrine to Glory]: inherited by 34 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples). Fires at the start of the late race from 1st or 2nd place, which is why Front Runners win here (JP guides agree).
  • Moving Past, and BeyondLate SurgerEnd CloserUnique of Mejiro Dober [Off the Line], inherited by 8 of 16 Late Surger winners and 8 of 13 End Closer winners in the early room sample; backup acceleration if Claw Forward fails.

Gold skills 11

  • Taking the LeadFront RunnerRunaway24 of 47 Front Runner winners (15 of 23 in the clean early room sample). One Group A Finals winner calls it mandatory with Groundwork for a Runaway.
  • Top RunnerFront RunnerRunaway34 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples). One Group A Finals winner: high priority for a Runaway duelling another one early.
  • See Ya Later!Front RunnerLate SurgerEnd CloserThe most common skill among winners after Angling and Scheming: 41 of 47 Front Runner, 8 of 9 Late Surger (early sample) and 26 of 32 End Closer winners (room samples).
  • Escape ArtistFront RunnerMid-race Front Runner skill: 20 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples); a Global guide still rates it strong.
  • Swinging MaestroFront RunnerRunawayLate SurgerEnd CloserThe standard gold recovery: 28 of 47 Front Runner and 18 of 19 End Closer winners (room samples). A JP post-event review: the only stable gold recovery for Umas without their own. With one gold, ~900 stamina is enough.
  • RestlessFront RunnerGold recovery that Daiwa Scarlet [Nuit Étoilée de Scarlet] and Maruzensky [Hot☆Summer Night] bring in their own kit; 12 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples); a Global guide lists it for Front Runners.
  • RunawayRunawayThe skill that turns a Front Runner into a Runaway. In JP 2022 only Silence Suzuka and Mejiro Palmer could learn it; Palmer gets it by event. 3 of 24 Front Runner winners in the late room sample had it.
  • Claw ForwardLate SurgerLate Surger acceleration at the start of the late race: 9 of 9 Late Surger winners in the early room sample ('near mandatory'). Comes from Symboli Kris S support cards and costs ~2% HP.
  • Encroaching ShadowEnd CloserEnd Closer acceleration on the straight where the late race starts, with no position condition: 29 of 32 End Closer winners (room samples; biased by their test Inari One).
  • Daring StrikeEnd Closer26 of 32 End Closer winners (room samples, test Inari One included); a Global guide gives it high priority for every End Closer.
  • Professor of CurvatureEnd CloserFront Runner30 of 32 End Closer winners and 27 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples).

White skills 5

  • GroundworkFront RunnerRunaway37 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples). One Group A Finals winner calls it mandatory for a Runaway to win the early lead.
  • Early LeadFront RunnerEarly-race Front Runner acceleration: 21 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples).
  • Front Runner Savvy ○Front Runner32 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples); also on a Global guide's green-style list.
  • Triple 7sLate SurgerRecovery: 5 of 16 Late Surger winners (room samples); a Global guide ranks it the first recovery for Late Surgers; it can also trigger the unique of Oguri Cap [Ashen Miracle].
  • Long Corners ◎End CloserFront Runner27 of 32 End Closer winners and 19 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples).

Green skills 6

  • Right-Handed ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Speed): 14 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples); recommended by JP and Global guides.
  • Nakayama Racecourse ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Stamina): 11 of 24 Front Runner winners in the late room sample; recommended by JP and Global guides.
  • Winter Runner ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Speed): 11 of 24 Front Runner winners in the late room sample; Daiwa Scarlet [Nuit Étoilée de Scarlet] and Special Week can get it by event.
  • Wet Conditions ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Power): Good is ground condition 2, which counts as wet. 11 of 24 Front Runner winners in the late room sample; a JP post-event review rates it 2 of 3 stars.
  • Non-Standard Distance ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Stamina) for 2500 m: 8 of 47 Front Runner winners (room samples); recommended by JP and Global guides.
  • Cloudy Days ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Guts): recommended by JP and Global guides; not among the counted skills of Front Runner winners in the room samples.

Team compositions

  • 1 Runaway (Mejiro Palmer or Silence Suzuka) + Mihono Bourbon + 1 closer (Special Week as Late Surger or Inari One as End Closer)

    From guides The Runaway stretches the field; Bourbon follows in 1st/2nd and fires Angling and Scheming and Victory Cheer!; the closer covers when the Front Runner is caught. One player went 70-10 in the rounds with Suzuka + Bourbon + Special Week and won the Group A Finals [anecdote]; JP and Global guides recommend this shape.

  • 2 Front Runners + 1 closer (e.g. Daiwa Scarlet + Kitasan Black + Mejiro Bright)

    From guides Two Front Runners back each other up and the closer is insurance. One player won a Graded League Finals this way; Scarlet won 49 of 80 round races while the incomplete Kitasan (4/80) and Bright (2/80) barely won [anecdote]. In JP, streamers mostly ran 2+ Front Runners. JP and Global guides list it.

  • 3 Front Runners (Bourbon, Scarlet, Kitasan)

    From guides Fewer opposing closers get through, but the third Front Runner usually finishes 3rd or worse and misses the inherited accelerations; a JP guide advises it only if all three are complete. A Global guide notes that Bourbon can run triple Front Runner with or without a Runaway.

  • 3 Late Surgers/End Closers

    From guides A gamble that is easier to build (Global guide); with many Front Runners the field stretches and closers may not get there (JP post-event review). No measured support.

  • 3 × Front Runner

    From guides Fewer opposing closers get through, but the third Front Runner usually finishes 3rd or worse and misses the inherited accelerations; a JP guide advises it only if all three are complete. A Global guide notes that Bourbon can run triple Front Runner with or without a Runaway.

Debuffers

Weak Common in JP lobbies (Nice Nature was the 5th most used Uma in Graded League Round 2; the room samples met Grass Wonder / Nice Nature teams inheriting 564 Escapades (110071) from Gold Ship [RUN! RUIN! LAUNCHER!] to fire Dominator (201151) or Mystifying Murmur (201161) late), yet none of the usual debuff Umas won any of the 100 races in those samples. A JP post-event review: stamina debuffs rarely bite because the stamina/guts racetrack bonus makes everyone carry ~900 stamina, speed debuffs only reach accelerated Front Runners through Dominator, and a debuffer costs one of the three aces you need. A Global guide also calls debuffers less valuable here, although it expects Global Runaways to be built mostly as debuffers.

Support decks

Decks published by guides for this CM in Japan. Some cards may not be in Global yet; the planner checks which ones you can use.

Card picks · Front Runner

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-03 · umamusumelabo.com
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

Inherited acceleration and early-position skills; prefer two Speed with a Power bonus. The other cards are not named.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Card picks · Late Surger

JP · Grand Live · 3 Speed / 1 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-07 · umamusumelabo.com
  • Symboli Kris SSSR A Win ForeshadowedKey skillClaw Forward
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

For Umas that bring their own recovery.

For Late with own healing and/or little Speed growth (Bright, Christmas Oguri). Kris S gives Claw Forward; recovery has to come from the Uma or from inheritance.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Card picks · Late Surger

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-07 · umamusumelabo.com
  • Symboli Kris SSSR A Win ForeshadowedKey skillClaw Forward
  • Super CreekSSR Piece of MindRecoverySwinging Maestro
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

For Umas without their own recovery.

For Late with Speed growth and no own healing (General Special Week, Christmas Vodka): acceleration and healing take separate slots.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Card picks · End Closer

JP · Grand Live · 3 Speed / 1 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-08 · umamusumelabo.com
  • Mr. C.B.SSR Dear Mr. C.B.Key skillDaring Strike
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

End without Speed growth (Gold Ship, Tamamo). Add Stamina if growth or recovery is lacking.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Card picks · End Closer

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-08 · umamusumelabo.com
  • Mr. C.B.SSR Dear Mr. C.B.Key skillDaring Strike
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

End with Speed growth (new Inari, Taishin); the guide suggests at least 6 stars of Power for this family.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Example deck · Front Runner

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-07 · gamewith.jp
  • MaruzenskySSR Sentimental Flare ♪Training
  • Super CreekSSR Piece of MindRecoverySwinging Maestro
  • Tokai TeioSSR Teio-Oo-Oo!!!Training
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

Example for Kitasan Front: two Stamina make it easier to complete Stamina at the cost of one Wit.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Example deck · Late Surger

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12-07 · gamewith.jp
  • Kitasan BlackSSR Fire at My HeelsTraining
  • Super CreekSSR Piece of MindRecoverySwinging Maestro
  • Symboli Kris SSSR A Win ForeshadowedKey skillClaw Forward
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

The second Stamina covers recovery; Wit factors make up for the single Wit.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Example deck · Front Runner

JP · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · 2022-12 · gamewith.jp
  • Kitasan BlackSSR Fire at My HeelsTraining
  • MaruzenskySSR Sentimental Flare ♪Training
  • Mejiro PalmerSSR Moonlit Devil ♪Key skillTaking the Lead
  • Super CreekSSR Piece of MindRecoverySwinging Maestro
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

Palmer provides the gold start skill Bourbon cannot take from her own support. It is not Bourbon's only valid deck.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Card picks · Front Runner, Late Surger, End Closer

KR/JP historical · Grand Live · 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · inven.co.kr
  • Symboli Kris SSSR A Win ForeshadowedKey skillClaw Forward
  • Mr. C.B.SSR Dear Mr. C.B.Key skillDaring Strike
  • MaruzenskySSR Sentimental Flare ♪Training
  • Mejiro PalmerSSR Moonlit Devil ♪Key skillTaking the Lead
  • Light HelloSSR From the Ground UpScenario link

Same family with different providers per style; skills and recovery change with the provider.

The guide does not name every card of this deck.

Deck shapes

  • 3 Speed / 1 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · Late Surger · JP · Grand Live · umamusumelabo.com
  • 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · Late Surger · JP · Grand Live · umamusumelabo.com
  • 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · KR/JP historical · Grand Live · inven.co.kr

Guides in other languages

  • Korean · author guide · 2024-03-14 · inven.co.kr

    • Mihono Bourbon (valentine) · Front Runner · Strong
    • Mejiro Palmer (original) · Runaway · Alternative
    • Special Week (general) · Late Surger · Alternative

    Historical guide; no population census; patch and Global availability pending.

  • English · author guide · uma.guide

    • T.M. Opera O (New Year) · Late Surger · Consistent among Late Surgers
    • Oguri Cap (Christmas) · Pace Chaser · Pace Chaser option
    • Mejiro McQueen (Summer) · Pace Chaser · Pace Chaser option
    • Rice Shower (Halloween) · Pace Chaser · Pace Chaser option

    Author's opinion; not a population measurement of wins.

    Availability, inventory and version must be checked.

  • English · author guide · neouniver.se

    • Kitasan Black (original) · Front Runner · S
    • Seiun Sky (Ballroom) · Front Runner · S
    • Mihono Bourbon (Valentine) · Front Runner · S
    • Mejiro Palmer (original) · Runaway · S
    • Inari One (Festive (2022)) · End Closer · S
    • Narita Taishin (original) · End Closer · S
    • Narita Brian (Blaze / hungry variant) · Pace Chaser · S, depends on the banner

    Author's opinion; not a population measurement of wins.

    Availability, inventory and version must be checked.

Measured data

Counts as their sources give them, each with its own sample. Win counts come from room matches or single accounts in Japan: small samples, not Global and not a win rate.

What was countedCountSample and limits
Share of room winners · Valentine BourbonJP sample42 / 100 winners (42 %)2022-12-13 Room sample, finals conditions No population win probability inferred.altema.jp

What may differ in Global

  • Race, ground and scenario transfer as they are: both CM20s use the same track, distance, direction, season, weather and ground condition 2 (Good), and JP also trained in Grand Concert.
  • All 12 Umas and all 25 skills listed exist in Global (cm_planner_umas.json and skillnames.json, master of 2026-10-02) and none is in not-in-game.json.
  • Not in the JP precedent: Narita Brian [Ravenous Wolf] (JP release 2022-12-20, during the CM) and Zenno Rob Roy [Heroic Author] (JP release 2022-12-12, three days before). Both are expected in Global before the CM20 Finals; neither is in the planner roster yet, and JP data says nothing about how they do here.
  • Global guides rate Umas that JP barely used here (one Global tier list's second tier includes Manhattan Cafe, Mayano Top Gun, Satono Diamond and Seiun Sky [Soirée des Chatons]); treat them as untested.
  • A Global guide expects Global Runaways to be built mostly as debuffers, while in JP they were pace-setters for Bourbon; if Global rooms carry more Runaways, the one-Runaway rule bites harder.
  • Global lobby usage is unknown before the event. The ~4-Front Runner room is JP's converged meta (Round 2 and room matches); Global players already have guides that point to Front Runner, so their Round 1 may look like JP's Round 2 [inference].
  • Skill balance differences between JP in December 2022 and Global in 2026 were not checked.

Gaps in the data

  • No win data from the real JP CM: the real-CM data measures only usage; wins come from room matches set up like the Graded League (one series with 100 winners, another with 100 races) and personal reports.
  • Runaways were not measured separately (JP counted them as Front Runners); the 0.5 per room is an upper bound from Suzuka + Palmer usage.
  • In the real-CM usage data, per-Uma shares beyond the top five are assigned by OCR order and may be off; style shares and per-room distributions are reliable.
  • Counts in the early and late room samples are biased by their three fixed test Umas (removed where stated); the per-Uma 'win rate' of the 100-winner room series is read as a share of its 100 wins.
  • The late room sample's table for Late Surger winners looks truncated (no Claw Forward), so Late Surger skill counts lean on the early sample.
  • No Global usage data exists before the event.

Sources and credits

This guide is our own summary, in our words, of the research below; the findings belong to their authors. Follow the links to read them in full.

Guides cited